Robust Stylized Facts on Comovement for the Spanish Economy

In this article we further develop the suggestion of obtaining stylized facts on comovement on the basis of prewhitened time series proposed in André, Pérez and Martín (2002). Firstly, we show some examples on the robustness of the method. Secondly, we test the relevance of such a proposal by revisiting some of the existing stylized facts on comovement for the Spanish economy in Dolado, Sebastián and Vallés (1993).Stylized Facts, Comovement, Cross Correlation Function, HP-Filter, Prewhitening

COMPUTING ROBUST STYLIZED FACTS ON COMOVEMENT

We propose an alternative method of obtaining stylized facts on comovement, based on the cross-correlation function of the prewhitened time series, which only depends on the purely stochastic components of the series and the cross efects between them. This approach has the property of being robust to the filtering procedure and hence to the cicle definition. The usual approach consists of obtaining the cross-correlation function of filtered variables, which reflect a mixture of both the existing cross-correlation between the variables and the autocorrelation structure of each of them. The autocorrelation structure, in turn, crucially depends on the filtering procedure. The relevance of such an approach is tested by revisiting some of the facts reported by Kydland and Prescott (1990).Prewhitening, Business Cycle, Stylized Facts, Comovement.

Fueling growth when oil peaks: directed technological change and the limits to efficiency

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining

Intertemporal and spatial location of disposal facilities

The optimal capacities and locations of a sequence of landfills are studied, and the interactions between these characteristics are considered. Deciding the capacity of a landfill has some spatial implications since it affects the feasible region for the remaining landfills, and some temporal implications because the capacity determines the lifetime of the landfill and hence the moment of time when the next landfills should be constructed. Some general mathematical properties of the solution are provided and interpreted from an economic point of view. The resulting problem turns out to be non-convex and, therefore, it cannot be solved by conventional optimization techniques. Some global optimization methods are used to solve the problem in a particular case in order to illustrate how the solution depends on the parameter values

Optimal sequence of landfills in solid waste management

Given that landfills are depletable and replaceable resources, the right approach, when dealing with landfill management, is that of designing an optimal sequence of landfills rather than designing every single landfill separately. In this paper we use Optimal Control models, with mixed elements of both continuous and discrete time problems, to determine an optimal sequence of landfills, as regarding their capacity and lifetime. The resulting optimization problems involve splitting a time horizon of planning into several subintervals, the length of which has to be decided. In each of the subintervals some costs, the amount of which depends on the value of the decision variables, have to be borne. The obtained results may be applied to other economic problems such as private and public investments, consumption decisions on durable goods, etc

Standardized environmental management systems as an internal management tool

In a principal-agent model we analyze the firm’s decision to adopt an informal or a standardized Environmental Management System (EMS). Our results are consistent with empirical evidence in several respects. A standardized EMS increases the internal control at the cost of introducing some degree of rigidity that entails an endogenous setup cost. Standardized systems are more prone to be adopted by big and well established firms and under tougher environmental policies. Firms with standardized EMS tend to devote more effort to abatement although this effort results in lower pollution only if public incentives are strong enough, suggesting a complementarity relationship between standardized EMS and public policies. Emission charges have both a marginal effect on abatement and a qualitative effect on the adoption decision that may induce a conflict between private and public interests. As a result of the combination of these two effects it can be optimal for the government to distort the tax in a specific way in order to push the firm to choose the socially optimal EMS. The introduction of standardized systems can result in win-win situations where firms, society and the environment get better off

Defining efficient policies in a general equilibrium model: a multi-objective approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multiobjective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since they have the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations)

Defining Efficient Policies in a General Equilibrium Model: A Multiobjective Approach

Macroeconomic policy makers are typically concerned with several indicators of economic performance. We thus propose to tackle the design of macroeconomic policy using Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. More specifically, we employ Multiobjective Programming (MP) to seek so-called efficient policies. The MP approach is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We chose use of a CGE model since they have the dual advantage of being consistent with standard economic theory while allowing one to measure the effect(s) of a specific policy with real data. Applying the proposed methodology to Spain (via the 1995 Social Accounting Matrix) we first quantified the trade-offs between two specific policy objectives: growth and inflation, when designing fiscal policy. We then constructed a frontier of efficient policies involving real growth and inflation. In doing so, we found that policy in 1995 Spain displayed some degree of inefficiency with respect to these two policy objectives. We then offer two sets of policy recommendations that, ostensibly, could have helped Spain at the time. The first deals with efficiency independent of the importance given to both growth and inflation by policy makers (we label this set: general policy recommendations). A second set depends on which policy objective is seen as more important by policy makers: increasing growth or controlling inflation (we label this one: objective-specific recommendations)

Scarcity climate rents under a carbon price with oligopoly competition

Prior research has shown that environmental policy can create scarcity rents. We analyse this phenomenon in the framework of a duopoly that faces a carbon price, considering both Cournot and Stackelberg competition. We identify the different sources of scarcity rents, which we classify in ‘output’ and ‘grandfathering’ scarcity rents. The former depend on the elasticity of the rivals’ output to the carbon price, while the latter is exogenous. We also determine under which conditions these rents can be large enough to increase firms’ profits and, as a policy implication, to what extent the existence of scarcity rents can make the firms agree on a tougher policy. This event is more likely to happen under Cournot than under Stackelberg competition, and the chances increase if the firms are allowed to pollute a large amount without paying a price

A multifactor sector model for the stock market: evidence from Spain

A factor model which relates the macroeconomy and the stock market evolution is presented. This relation is shown to be different among activity sectors. These differences are detected and quantified in an empirical application to the Madrid Stock Market. Forecasting experiments show that it is possible to improve the predictive ability of widely used models by means of the sensible use of the information provided by macroeconomic variables